Mountain West Preview, Projections: Nearly 5,000 Words On Boise State, UNLV & More

The Mountain West as we know it is on the way out, but not without its fair share of intrigue. While Boise State reigns king, the rest of the pack looks to combine excitement and uncertainty for 2025.

Aug 09, 2025

The 2025 edition of the Mountain West Conference is the final one as we know it. Next season, five members depart for the revamped Pac-12 and two new members join the fray. In its final current act, Boise State once again reigns king as both MWC favorite and a College Football Playoff repeat. Contenders like UNLV and Fresno State turn over coaching staffs and Air Force looks to completely scrub itself clean of a disastrous start to 2024. San Jose State is a chic pick and holds the second-best odds to win the league, largely due to hitting the schedule lottery.

Teams like Hawaii, Colorado State, and San Diego State all hope to revitalize stagnant offenses while Wyoming looks to get anything going in that department. Utah State and New Mexico break in new coaches and could be exciting watches if nothing else and Nevada looks to remain a team capable of knocking off top teams in the conference.

Perhaps the drama won’t be there as, even at the end of this preview, Boise appears to be the clear best team. But there’s so many moving pieces and intriguing players that flashed brilliance with minimal work (Hawaii QB Micah Alejado and Boise State RB Sire Gaines chief among them). So let’s survey the landscape and deep dive all of the teams in the Mountain West this season.

As the weeks of the offseason wane, I’m previewing every conference for the upcoming 2025 college football season. Continue the conversation on Twitter.

Mountain West 2025 Preseason Power Ratings

Table Key (all ranks except power rankings are national):

Rank (Power ranking, conference)
Proj. Wins (Projected total wins)
Return (Returning production, total)
PPG (Points per game scored)
PPGA (Points per game allowed)
L5 (Last five years recruiting average, national)

The Mountain West Favorite: Boise State Broncos

There’s only one odds-on favorite to win their conference ahead of the 2025 college football season: the Boise State Broncos. Despite losing a Heisman runner-up and 2,600-yard rusher to the NFL, Boise State projects to pick up right where it left off as Mountain West favorite and Group of Five favorite to make the College Football Playoff.

QB Maddux Madsen returns as the preseason QB1 on every all-conference publication after throwing for 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. He’s the leading returner in passing efficiency, so why not pencil him in as both All-MWC QB1 and the Offensive Player of the Year this preseason? Don’t discredit what Ashton Jeanty’s backfield presence did for Madsen last season. He was an extremely efficient passer thanks to the throw game being opened up by a dynamic run game. Look no further than Madsen’s Big Time Throw rate (per PFF) – he logged just seven BTT all season, about 2% of his total volume.

But the backfield will again open up opportunities for Madsen as some significant talent returns. Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod rushed for nearly 900 yards in 2023 before injuries sidelined him in 2024. Sire Gaines also returns from injury and shows significant explosion. In limited time, he rushed for 158 yards, but 86 of those came after contact and he displayed an ability to rip off long runs. Gaines almost assuredly won’t be the same as Jeanty, but he’s a capable 1,000-yard rusher should he remain healthy.

Madsen, Sherrod, and Gaines all have the luxury of playing behind the Mountain West’s best offensive line by far. Four starters return including All-America selection Kage Casey and all-conference caliber players in Mason Randolph, Hall Schmidt, and Roger Carreon (who missed much of last season to injury). This isn’t just an elite line in the MWC, it’s a nationally elite unit.

Boise must replace top talent up front, including edge rusher Ahmed Hassanein (9.5 sacks). Like on the offensive front, this defensive line is packed with all-conference talent, namely Jayden Virgin-Morgan, a first-team All-Mountain West selection last year. While linebacker is the weaker unit on this individual defense, it still grades out as the best in the conference.

A nightmarish defensive front couples with a lockdown secondary led by all-conference candidates in CB A’Marion McCoy (14 PBU) and SAF Ty Benefield (Boise’s leading tackler with 82, plus 2 INT). Both corners are 6-foot are taller and exhibit both exceptional length and willing physicality (McCoy also logged 60 tackles!). The safeties are aggressive run-fitters that are as weaponess as any linebacker on the roster. It’s a scary combination that calls for another top-30 national projection.

The lone game the Broncos won’t be favored in this season is at Notre Dame (Week 6). However, don’t overlook Week 1 at USF—last year, Boise made the same cross-country trip to a hot and humid environment and surrendered 45 points in a win at Georgia Southern—or a seven-game stretch that includes five conference opponents, Notre Dame, and Appalachian State. There’s tricky spots, but it’s hard to see anyone spring an upset on this downright loaded roster.

Mountain West Contenders

San Jose State Spartans

At first glance, projecting a 7-6 team with the second-most wins in the Mountain West this year seems like a reach. It returns its quarterback, but that quarterback only threw 13 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and a minimal rushing threat. No offensive player earned all-conference honors and just 12 FBS starters return in total. So what gives?

The projection is twofold: (1) The returning foundational pieces project lots of upside and, (2) San Jose State was handed the Mountain West’s best schedule.

Let’s tackle Point 1 first. QB Walker Eget improved quite a bit throughout last year, throwing for 446 yards against Boise State in Week 12 and almost 400 yards against Stanford two weeks later. (Note: He also went 4-for-22 for 81 yards against UNLV in between those two games, so there’s work to do.) But once Ken Niumatalolo embraced a pass-heavy attack, Eget rounded into a good passer.

The offensive line is plenty experienced, with three returning starters in Joseph Harbert (center), Sione Nomani (guard), and all-conference candidate Peseti Lapuaho (tackle). The run game must improve behind this line after finishing near the bottom of the country in efficiency last season.

The defense was solid last year, but it struggled to get off the field on third downs and allowed too many big plays through the air. Nose guard Gafa Faga is an imposing figure on the defensive line and earned All-Mountain West honors last season. Linebacker Jordan Pollard logged 115 tackles, 12 for a loss, and was selected first-team All-MWC. The secondary needs rebuilt but there’s physical pieces there, including 6-foot-4 corner Maliki Crawford, a sophomore transfer from USC.

OK, now Point 2, which I’d argue is the biggest reason for SJSU’s projection. The Spartans don’t play Boise State or UNLV in the regular season, handle Fresno State and Air Force at home, and play all of the bottom six teams in the conference. In the non-conference, SJSU hosts Central Michigan (a team that turns over an entire coaching staff) in Week 1 and FCS Idaho in Week 3. Based on preseason numbers, the Spartans only project to be underdogs in two games with an additional toss-up with Fresno State.

So while this team may not rate out as the second-best in the Mountain West, there’s real reason to figure this is an 8-4 team or better come December.

Fresno State Bulldogs

It’s (another) new coach in the Valley as Fresno State brings in former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz to give some stability to the program. After 29 wins in three years, Fresno fell to 6-7—partly due to Jeff Tedford re-assuming the head coaching role and then stepping away for another time due to health complications, leaving the team to interim Tim Skipper—behind inconsistency on both offense and defense.

The QB race comes down to a pair of transfers, E.J. Warner (Temple, Rice) and Carson Conklin (Sacramento State). Warner appears to be the clubhouse leader for QB1 but showed a propensity to throw far too many interceptions in his two seasons starting. New OC Josh Davis comes over from South Dakota, a team who took a massive leap in scoring last season.

Warner will need to find a couple trustworthy targets as none of the top three receivers from last year return, although the top two rushers and 50 career starts along the offensive line look promising. It’ll be a new system with more two tight end looks and plenty of power running from the shotgun.

Only four starters return from a serviceable defense. The line needs to toughen up and three of the projected starters are new. The biggest problem this coming season will be inexperience as six starters are sophomores and only one projects to be a senior. That could cause some growing pains for this unit.

The other issue is a difficult schedule. In the non-conference, Fresno State plays at Kansas (the first game in a brand-new stadium), against Georgia Southern, and at Oregon State – three potent offenses. The Bulldogs hit the road for Hawaii, Boise State, and San Jose State – two of the Mountain West’s top teams and a third we’ll talk about soon. Winnable games include Southern (FCS), Nevada, Wyoming, and Utah State.

However this is a team that appears more poised to have to fight for bowl eligibility than a league title.

The Mountain West’s Middle Class In 2025

Colorado State Rams

I’m not a Jay Norvell guy. Colorado State is a program that spends money on football, illustrated quite literally in its gorgeous Canvas Stadium that opened in 2017. The athletic department isn’t afraid to figure high-level assistant hires in its budget and will go out and lure away other coaches with bigger paychecks than others in the Mountain West. This team should be an annual 9-3 and MWC favorite. But it’s not.

And that, in my opinion, is because they’re locked into a subpar coach that exhibits a poor figurehead for this program. CSU finished a respectable 8-5, but went 0-4 against top-90 teams in 2024 and 8-1 against those in the bottom 45.

QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns with over 6,200 career passing yards and with another cast of talented receivers. Despite missing an All-America pass catcher last year, Fowler-Nicolosi threw for nearly 2,800 yards, though his touchdown number dropped from 22 to 14. Armani Winfield is the only receiver returning from last year’s top six and 1,000-yard rusher Avery Morrow is gone. Rising starters Justin Marshall (RB) and Jordan Ross (WR) are both young talents that could contribute big numbers right away. Without an all-world receiver like Tory Horton, Fowler-Nicolosi struggled. Now, he has to pick it up with a green cast of skill guys.

The defense turns over all but two starters, both edge players in Mukendi Wa-Lakonji and Kenyon Agurs. There’s a few Power Conference transfers like DL Dennious Jackson (Kentucky), LB Jacob Ellis (Iowa State), and APEX JaQues Evans (Baylor), but the rest of the starting lineup is unproven. Sophomore linebacker Owen Long projects upside after logging 45 tackles as a true freshman last year; he’s the only returner from the top nine tacklers.

The biggest improvement to this team is the hiring of Western Kentucky DC Tyson Summers. Despite leading the defense of a high-tempo Air Raid team, Summers led WKU to top-half defensive finishes in points per drive, highlighted by a 27th overall finish in 2022. He’s a clear improvement on what Colorado State had before.

Colorado State’s schedule is tricky. The Rams play Washington and UTSA in the non-conference and finish the season with a four-game stretch that includes UNLV, at New Mexico (Lobos off a bye), at Boise State, and Air Force. You can easily spot five losable games on this slate. If CSU finishes 7-5 despite its willingness to spend, that may not be enough reason to keep Norvell in town beyond this year. (His buyout drops to $1.5M this season, down from $2.5M last year.)

Air Force Falcons

There’s differing schools of thought on the correlation between late-season finishes and rollover into the next season. Air Force began 2024 at 0-7 against FBS competition, including a loss to New Mexico, and truly was a bottom-five team nationally. But its final four games featured four wins, including a big upset over Fresno State. The offense averaged 29.3 points, compared to a dreadful 13.4 the eight prior games, and the defense held opponents under 21 in the final three (including pitching a shutout against Oregon State).

QB musical chairs subsided late in the year but they may be necessary again this fall camp. Junior Josh Johnson reportedly took a majority of snaps this spring camp after Quentin Hayes—the leader of that 4-0 run last year—left for The Citadel. But the other major contributors do return, including fullback Dylan Carson (600 yards, 5 TD) and running back Kade Frew (279 yards, 1 TD in sparse work to injury). Eight of the ten players who logged 14+ carries return.

Up front, three starters return, headlined by center Costen Cooley. Last year’s unit was hampered by inexperience as it went into 2024 with zero (!!!) career starts. That was one of the chief reasons for ineptitude on offense early on and that line clicked much better during its four-game win streak.

Air Force’s defense was uncharacteristically bad last year. It allowed 52 to run-first New Mexico, 31 to the aforementioned impossibly bad Wyoming offense, and 34 to rival Navy. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much notable improvement to the personnel and DT Peyton Zdroik is large and by far the best player. Seven starting positions turn over, including almost all of the second level linebacking crew.

Air Force plays three of its last four games away from home: at San Jose State, at UConn the very next week, and then at rival Colorado State to close the year. It’s a team that should improve significantly from its first eight games of 2024, but perhaps not to the heights of those final four games.

San Diego State Aztecs

Year 1 under Sean Lewis was a serious challenge for San Diego State. It didn’t have a prolific passer (or really even that serviceable of one) and Lewis’ ultra-tempo offense crashed near the bottom of national efficiency (119th in points per drive, in the bottom five on late downs). The defense was also bad, allowing 40+ in three of its last five games. So will either unit take a big enough jump to make SDSU competitive in 2025?

The QB room is completely revamped, a necessary action, now featuring junior Jayden Denegal, dynamic rusher Bert Emanuel Jr., and Kyle Crum – no relation to former Lewis QB Dustin. Denegal appears to be the clubhouse leader for QB1 but he has no body of collegiate work as a backup at Michigan. Emanuel Jr. is an exciting runner, but hasn’t shown the capability to throw a forward pass. Perhaps both players see the field in certain situations and Lewis has the track record of developing QBs.

SDSU replaces a 1,200-yard rusher in Marquez Cooper, likely by committee. Lucky Sutton is the leading returning rusher with just five carries; Coastal Carolina transfer Christian Washington ran for over 500 yards in Conway last season. Jordan Napier is the only returning receiver with 4+ catches but there’s talent in transfers like Jordan Bostic (Texas A&M) and Mules Kitt-Denton (Northwestern State).

The offensive line returns All-MWC selection Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli at center and left tackle Christian Jones and the rest are made up of Power Conference transfers. There’s really good size up front—both tackles stand 6-foot-8 and the other three, 6-foot-4—but the entirety of this offense is made up of unknown commodities.

Despite the poor defensive showing last year, there’s some real talent on SDSU’s stop unit. Trey White is among the country’s best defensive ends and decided to remain put with the Aztecs after earning All-America honors. Linebacker Tano Letuli comes off an All-MWC season and, in total, 10 starters return, four with All-MWC honorable mention statuses or better. This is a unit that will improve significantly in 2025.

Wyoming Cowboys

Two things were simultaneously true about the 2024 Wyoming Cowboys: this team suffered from widespread injuries but was also a bad team. It took two close wins to avoid going 1-11 in Year 1 under Jay Sawvel as the lethargic offense finally bottomed out and paired with an inconsistent defense for a 3-9 finish. The offense was so bad that is gained zero yards on 36% of all offensive snaps last year!

I don’t normally throw in charts to these previews, but this offensive profile needs your attention (courtesy of Game on Paper).

But this year, nine FBS starters return on offense including TE John Michael Gyllenborg – the Mountain West’s only representative on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for 2025. Despite playing in just six games, JMG earned All-MWC honors. QB Kaden Anderson also returns after taking over late in the season and injecting some life into the listless Wyoming offense. Under his command, the Pokes won their second game (vs. New Mexico) and took Boise State to the brink, losing 17-13. Former QB Evan Svaboda will now suit up at tight end.

Converse to the offense, only three starters return on defense. It was a unit that featured a bend-don’t-break approach that excelled on late downs but also gave up way too many points (82nd in points per drive). It simply wasn’t good enough to account for the dreadful offense.

Phil Steele’s Stock Market indicator seems to think Wyoming is on the rise last year. But under a completely new regime, I just don’t know. I’m not enthusiastic about the lack of weapons around Anderson—opposing coaches seem to think Anderson may not even start, instead a true freshman could get looks—nor the lack of returning production on defense. Wyoming avoids Boise State but gets the next top seven in Mountain West odds. This isn’t a bowl team in 2025.

Mountain West Darkhorse Team To Watch: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Hawaii football as we know and love it may return to form in 2025. The last few seasons under Timmy Chang featured lethargic offenses coupled with a porous defense and some really tough watches. Now heading into Year 4 under Chang, Hawaii has yet to clinch a bowl spot.

The hype train left the station in late November 2024 when freshman QB Micah Alejado blasted New Mexico for 469 yards and five touchdowns. That followed up an 11-for-12 passing performance against Utah State. Did those numbers come against two of the country’s worst pass defenses? Absolutely. Was it exciting to watch anyway? Hell yes.

But as it goes for Alejado, we have to see more despite a 125-to-4 TD-to-INT mark at a nationally-relevant high school (yes, 125 to 4!). He starts the year against Stanford, Arizona, Sam Houston State, and Portland State, all beatable defenses. But then he sees Fresno State and Air Force before heading into a bye. It’ll take some time before we see what the youngster is made of.

Fortunately, Alejado has a talented cast of receivers at his disposal. Both Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock are all-conference worthy receivers as they combined for over 1,300 yards and 12 TDs last season. Stanford transfer Jackson Harris adds some size to the group at 6-foot-3. Three starters on the offensive line return, as does center Ethan Spencer (four starts last year) and converted defensive tackle Dean Briski (played six games at left tackle last year).

Last year’s defense was the best we’ve seen from Hawaii in some time, but it still finished 101st in points per drive. All five top tacklers return and nine starters are back. There’s a new DC, Dennis Thurman, who brings NFL experience and Hawaii’s defense could again be serviceable.

According to preseason numbers, Hawaii projects to play in eight one-score games this year – that gives them an enormous range of outcomes but also a strong opportunity to make its first bowl under Chang.

Mountain West Team To Fade: UNLV Rebels

UNLV has a rumored problem. While Barry Odom managed to take the program to new heights, the athletic department supposedly has been writing checks it can’t cash, first highlighted by the abrupt departure of QB Matthew Sluka. The spending spree worked as UNLV went 11-3, appeared in its first-ever Mountain West championship game in 2023 (and then did it again in 2024!), and beat Cal in the ‘24 LA Bowl. But what happens if this program keeps over-spending?

That call likely doesn’t come in 2025. Dan Mullen comes to town after a three-year hiatus on television as a clear short-term follow-up to Odom’s 20-5 run in 2023-24. Mullen brings in 51 new players, the seventh-most in the FBS, including 16 former blue chip recruits. The offensive coordinator is Corey Dennis (Tulsa’s QB coach, formerly at Ohio State) and the defensive coordinator is Paul Guenther, who had to step in when Zach Arnett left during spring ball. (He was placed on leave and never returned. Not a great sign!)

Virginia gunslinger Anthony Colandrea comes in, as does Michigan runner Alex Orji and both will likely see time situationally. Two projected starting receivers are Power Conference transfers, as are a pair of reserve running backs. Jai’den Thomas returns after rushing for over 900 yards and earning all-conference honors. Zero offensive linemen return and the only newcomer with significant starting experience is center Reid Williams (Chattanooga). UNLV loses the Go Go offense and, to be honest, I’m not entirely sure what this scoring unit will look like in 2025.

The defense has great size (especially up front) but linebacker Marsel McDuffie is the only returning player that logged more than 10 tackles last year. Six projected starters are Power Conference transfers, including a trio from LSU – CB Denver Harris (once a high four-star prospect), DL Jalen Lee, and CB Laterrance Welsh. Arnett was able to conduct a pretty good defense at times at Mississippi State, but with this many new faces, it’s hard to see it all come together as a real contender in Year 1.

There’s just so much new that accurately projecting UNLV is a difficult feat. There’s a very high ceiling in place with a possibility of things really falling hard.

The Rest Of The Pack

Utah State Aggies

Bronco Mendenhall comes in for his next season of Bar Rescue to resurrect a Utah State team that fell from 11-3 to 16-22 over the last three years. The Aggies bring in 55 new players this year, fourth-most in the FBS, but return QB Bryson Barnes. This is a long-term reclamation project as Mendenhall even went 6-6, 2-10, and 5-7 in his last three Year 1s. The closing stretch at UNLV and Fresno State, then against Boise State, is particularly brutal. There may not be a win-loss improvement, but this will be a better football team by November.

New Mexico Lobos

Conversely, losing Bronco Mendenhall stinks. Jason Eck comes in from Idaho and, with him, a bunch of Vandals. QB Jack Layne threw for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs before suffering a collarbone injury (7 starts) and a pair of dynamic running backs, Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) and Damon Bankston (Weber State), bolster this skill unit. The offensive line is packed with experienced FCS transfers and the defense starts completely over under DC Spencer Nowinsky. Though New Mexico in name only, this could be a team with a similar footprint to 2024 – fun run game with a bad defense.

Nevada Wolfpack

Nevada started off hot under Jeff Choate, almost knocking off CFP player SMU early on! While it seems like a good culture hire, I’m not convinced Nevada ever really turns it around. There’s little financial backing—the football stadium is out-dated and still has a track around it… something only Nevada and Buffalo have left in the FBS—and Reno isn’t much a draw for college students. The Wolfpack project no better than a pesky team under QB Chubba Purdy that’s stuck in 4-8 purgatory.

All-MWC Preseason Team

QB: Maddux Madsen (Boise State)
RB: Scottre Humphrey (New Mexico), Sire Gaines (Boise State)
WR: Nick Cenacle (Hawaii), Latrell Caples (Boise State), Pofele Ashlock (Hawaii)
TE: Matt Lauter (Boise State)
IOL: Jack Walsh (Wyoming), Roger Carreon (Boise State), Caden Barnett (Wyoming)
OT: Kage Casey (Boise State), Peseti Lapuaho (SJSU)

DL: Trey White (SDSU), Braxton Fely (Boise State), Gafa Faga (SJSU), Jayden Virgin-Morgan (Boise State)
LB: Marco Notarainni (Boise State), Jordan Pollard (SJSU), Tano Letuli (SDSU)
CB: A’Marion McCoy (Boise State), A’zillion Hamilton (Fresno State)
SAF: Ty Benefield (Boise State), Ike Larson (Utah State)

Mountain West Dudes List

TE John Michael Gyllenborg, Wyoming: JMG missed several starts with an injury last year, only starting six games, and was still named second-team All-Mountain West. At 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Gyllenborg creates a significant mismatch in the passing game. In those six starts, he pulled in the team’s second-most receptions (30) and yards (425). Best yet, he was named to Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for 2025.

DE Trey White, San Diego State: “Defensive studs” and “San Diego State” haven’t gone hand-in-hand over the last few years, but that’s exactly what White is. He led the Mountain West in TFLs (18.5) and sacks (12.5) and earned honorable mention All-America last season. It’s a testament to Sean Lewis & the coaching staff for keeping White an Aztec and not bolting in the transfer portal.

RB Sire Gaines, Boise State: If you think the RB train ended with Ashton Jeanty, I’ve got news for you. Gaines spent a good portion of last year hurt, but when he was on the field he was electric. Gaines rushed for 7.8 yards per carry and 86 of his season 156 rushing yards (over half!) came after contact. He could be one of the best backs in America this year.

Coaching & Coordinator Changes In The Mountain West

Matt Entz, Fresno State: Entz continued the winning tradition at NDSU, winning the 2021 National Championship and appearing in the 2022 game. He went 60-11 in Fargo and recruited NFL talent to the Bison, including QB Cam Miller and WR Bryce Lance. Fresno State receives championship pedigree and immediately becomes a Mountain West contender under Entz.

Jason Eck, New Mexico: They probably did the best with what they had after a dynamite year under Bronco Mendenhall. Eck led Idaho to a 26-13 record in three seasons, including two FCS Playoff quarterfinals. He never missed the postseason in Moscow (pronounced Mos-koh, unlike its Russian counterpart) but the challenge in Albuquerque is much greater with a whole lot fewer resources compared to his Mountain West rivals.

Dan Mullen, UNLV: The school that hired (and fired) Mullen previously showed to the CFB world that he was almost certainly taken for granted. Despite his successes at Florida, Mullen sat out the last three seasons as an ESPN analyst and broadcaster and was either picked over for jobs or just not offered the right one. This seems like a sensible hire for UNLV but following up Barry Odom’s 20-5 record the last two seasons isn’t easy.

Bronco Mendenhall, Utah State: There hasn’t been a turnaround job that Mendenhall couldn’t orchestrate. Last year in his return to college football, he was seconds away—multiple times—from taking New Mexico to a bowl. He went 9-5 at Virginia, leading the Hoos to an ACC Championship and Orange Bowl berth. At BYU, Mendenhall won 10+ games five times, including in Year 2. He’s a winner and a home run hire for Utah State.

Find every Mountain West coordinator change, along with the rest of the FBS coaching carousel here.